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Lecturer(s)
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Veselík Petr, Ing. Ph.D.
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Zeman Tomáš, doc. Mgr. Ph.D. et Ph.D.
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Course content
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Taught topics: - Introduction to the study of the subject, software tools for quantitative risk analysis, assumptions and limitations associated with the application of statistical methods in risk assessment, data sources for quantitative risk analysis; - Statistical testing of hypotheses, parametric and non-parametric statistical tests and assumptions of their use; - Risk metrics, measurement error estimation; - Quantitative risk estimation methods; - Reliability analysis of risk estimation; - Testing causal relationships in risk analysis correlation analysis; - Modeling causal relationships in risk analysis using linear regression; - Methods of predictive risk modelling, time series analysis; - Evaluation of the uncertainty resulting from the model used; - Bayesian inference in risk analysis of highly improbable events; - Use of simulation methods in risk analysis, Monte Carlo method; - The use of statistical methods in the assessment of the relationship between the dose and the effect of a chemical substance as part of the assessment of health risks; - Use of statistical methods to evaluate exposure in the health risk assessment framework.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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- Participation in classes
- 39 hours per semester
- Term paper
- 16 hours per semester
- Preparation for examination
- 30 hours per semester
- Home preparation for classes
- 15 hours per semester
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| prerequisite |
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| Knowledge |
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| Znalost základů vysokoškolské algebry, počtu pravděpodobnosti, statistiky, aplikované informatiky a metod hodnocení rizika. |
| Znalost základů vysokoškolské algebry, počtu pravděpodobnosti, statistiky, aplikované informatiky a metod hodnocení rizika. |
| Knowledge of the basics of college algebra, probability calculus, statistics, applied informatics and risk assessment methods. |
| Knowledge of the basics of college algebra, probability calculus, statistics, applied informatics and risk assessment methods. |
| learning outcomes |
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| definovat pojem statistický model vysvětlit princip kvantitativní analýzy rizik vysvětlit princip testování statistických hypotéz popsat základní kvantitativní metody odhadu rizika objasnit princip korelační analýzy objasnit princip regresní analýzy objasnit princip výpočetního aparátu pro kvantitativní analýzu zdravotních rizik objasnit princip posuzování rizik vysoce nepravděpodobných událostí |
| definovat pojem statistický model vysvětlit princip kvantitativní analýzy rizik vysvětlit princip testování statistických hypotéz popsat základní kvantitativní metody odhadu rizika objasnit princip korelační analýzy objasnit princip regresní analýzy objasnit princip výpočetního aparátu pro kvantitativní analýzu zdravotních rizik objasnit princip posuzování rizik vysoce nepravděpodobných událostí |
| define the term statistical model explain the principle of quantitative risk analysis explain the principle of statistical hypothesis testing describe the essential quantitative methods of risk estimation clarify the principle of correlation analysis clarify the principle of regression analysis clarify the principle of the computer for the quantitative analysis of health risks clarify the principle of risk assessment of highly improbable events |
| define the term statistical model explain the principle of quantitative risk analysis explain the principle of statistical hypothesis testing describe the essential quantitative methods of risk estimation clarify the principle of correlation analysis clarify the principle of regression analysis clarify the principle of the computer for the quantitative analysis of health risks clarify the principle of risk assessment of highly improbable events |
| Skills |
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| vybrat vhodnou základní metodu kvantitativní analýzy rizik aplikovat vhodný test při testování statistických hypotéz posoudit riziko za použití základních kvantitativních metod aplikovat základní korelační koeficienty aplikovat vhodné typy lineárních regresních funkcí navrhnout postup posuzování zdravotních rizik navrhnout postup posouzení rizik vysoce nepravděpodobných událostí |
| vybrat vhodnou základní metodu kvantitativní analýzy rizik aplikovat vhodný test při testování statistických hypotéz posoudit riziko za použití základních kvantitativních metod aplikovat základní korelační koeficienty aplikovat vhodné typy lineárních regresních funkcí navrhnout postup posuzování zdravotních rizik navrhnout postup posouzení rizik vysoce nepravděpodobných událostí |
| choose a suitable basic method of quantitative risk analysis apply an appropriate test in statistical hypothesis testing assess risk using basic quantitative methods apply basic correlation coefficients apply appropriate types of linear regression functions propose a health risk assessment procedure propose a risk assessment procedure for highly improbable events |
| choose a suitable basic method of quantitative risk analysis apply an appropriate test in statistical hypothesis testing assess risk using basic quantitative methods apply basic correlation coefficients apply appropriate types of linear regression functions propose a health risk assessment procedure propose a risk assessment procedure for highly improbable events |
| teaching methods |
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| Knowledge |
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| Exercises on PC |
| Exercises on PC |
| Monologic (Exposition, lecture, briefing) |
| Monologic (Exposition, lecture, briefing) |
| Demonstration |
| Demonstration |
| Projection (static, dynamic) |
| Projection (static, dynamic) |
| assessment methods |
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| Analysis of seminar paper |
| Analysis of seminar paper |
| Composite examination (Written part + oral part) |
| Composite examination (Written part + oral part) |
| Analysis of the student's performance |
| Analysis of the student's performance |
| Analysis of a presentation given by the student |
| Analysis of a presentation given by the student |
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Recommended literature
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ASBURY, Stephen a Edmund JACOBS. Dynamic Risk Assessment: The Practical Guide to Making Risk-Based Decisions with the 3-Level Risk Management Model. Abingdon, Oxon, 2014. ISBN 9780415854030.
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HAIMES, Yacov Y. Risk modeling, assessment, and management. Hoboken, 2016. ISBN 978-1-119-01798-1.
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OSTROM, Lee T. a Cheryl A. WILHELMSEN. Risk assessment: tools, techniques, and their applications. Hoboken, 2019. ISBN 978-1-119-48346-5.
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RAUSAND, Marvin a Stein HAUGEN. Risk assessment: theory, methods, and applications. Hoboken, 2020. ISBN 1119377226.
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SIMON, Ted W. Environmental Risk Assessment: a Toxicological Approach. Boca Raton, 2020. ISBN 978-1-13-803383-2.
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VOSE, David. Risk Analysis: A Guantitative Guide. Chichester, 2008. ISBN 978-0-470-51284-5.
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