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Lecturer(s)
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Valouch Jan, Ing. Ph.D.
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Hromada Martin, prof. Ing. Ph.D.
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Course content
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Course unit contents: Theory of prognosis. Methodology of futurology. Security environment and security threats. New technologies and their impact on security. Use of prognostic methods. National futurology and forecasting. International forecasting. Prognosis in the military. Analysis and comparison of conceptual and strategic documents.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book), Text analysis, Individual work of students
- Preparation for examination
- 270 hours per semester
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| prerequisite |
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| Knowledge |
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| The student should know the basic concepts and definitions from area of safety and security and risk management. |
| The student should know the basic concepts and definitions from area of safety and security and risk management. |
| learning outcomes |
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| The student will gain knowledge of the issue of security forecasts in a broader context. He will gain orientation in relation to security analyses and syntheses. He will understand and be able to apply selected aspects of forecasting in relation to current needs and trends in the security environment, as a basis for predicting the course of security situations. The ability to process forecast materials can be expected. |
| The student will gain knowledge of the issue of security forecasts in a broader context. He will gain orientation in relation to security analyses and syntheses. He will understand and be able to apply selected aspects of forecasting in relation to current needs and trends in the security environment, as a basis for predicting the course of security situations. The ability to process forecast materials can be expected. |
| characterize the importance of safety prognostication |
| characterize the importance of safety prognostication |
| describe scientific methods applicable in prognostication |
| describe scientific methods applicable in prognostication |
| to define the starting points of the security situation on a national, European and international scale |
| to define the starting points of the security situation on a national, European and international scale |
| to discuss basic forecasting techniques |
| to discuss basic forecasting techniques |
| characterize analytical procedures in the field of developing security threats and the security environment |
| characterize analytical procedures in the field of developing security threats and the security environment |
| Skills |
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| perform an analysis of the development of the security situation of the given reference object |
| perform an analysis of the development of the security situation of the given reference object |
| apply qualitative forecasting methods |
| apply qualitative forecasting methods |
| apply quantitative forecasting methods |
| apply quantitative forecasting methods |
| perform a safety assessment of the environment |
| perform a safety assessment of the environment |
| create a scenario of the possible development of the security situation |
| create a scenario of the possible development of the security situation |
| teaching methods |
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| Knowledge |
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| Individual work of students |
| Individual work of students |
| Text analysis |
| Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book) |
| Text analysis |
| Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book) |
| assessment methods |
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| Oral examination |
| Oral examination |
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Recommended literature
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BISTRON, Marta; PIOTROWSKI, Zbigniew. Artificial intelligence applications in military systems and their influence on sense of security of citizens. 2021.
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HAGMEYER, Simon; MAUTHE, Fabian; ZEILER, Peter. Creation of publicly available data sets for prognostics and diagnostics addressing data scenarios relevant to industrial applications. 2021.
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CHIRAYATH, Sunil S.; BABA, M. Sai (ed.). Human Reliability Programs in Industries of National Importance for Safety and Security. 2023.
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Li, H., Peng, W., Adumene, S., & Yazdi, M. Intelligent reliability and maintainability of energy infrastructure assets. 2023.
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LOIKO, Valeriia V., et al. Methodical tools for security level diagnostics of the modern university's activity. 2021.
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MAJUMDAR, Joydeep, et al. Logistics, Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (L-RAMS) for Intelligent, Interconnected, Digital and Distributed (I2D2) empowered futuristic Military Systems. 2024.
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VALOUCH, J, HROMADA, M. Bezpečnostní futurologie. Zlín. 2016.
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VOGL, Gregory W.; WEISS, Brian A.; HELU, Moneer. A review of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities and best practices for manufacturing. 2019.
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ZHAO, Xingang, et al. ZHAO, Xingang, et al. 2021.
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