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Lecturer(s)
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Hromada Martin, prof. Ing. Ph.D.
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Course content
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Course unit contents: Theory of prognosis. Methodology of futurology. Security environment and security threats. New technologies and their impact on security. Use of prognostic methods. National futurology and forecasting. International forecasting. Prognosis in the military. Analysis and comparison of conceptual and strategic documents.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book), Text analysis, Individual work of students
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| prerequisite |
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| Knowledge |
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| The student should know the basic concepts and definitions from area of safety and security and risk management. |
| The student should know the basic concepts and definitions from area of safety and security and risk management. |
| learning outcomes |
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| The student will gain deeper knowledge in the field of security futurology, acquire knowledge of the application of modern methods of futurology with a focus on safety and security. The student will be able to predict security problems, analyze and propose solutions based on deep theoretical knowledge. |
| The student will gain deeper knowledge in the field of security futurology, acquire knowledge of the application of modern methods of futurology with a focus on safety and security. The student will be able to predict security problems, analyze and propose solutions based on deep theoretical knowledge. |
| characterize the importance of safety prognostication |
| characterize the importance of safety prognostication |
| describe scientific methods applicable in prognostication |
| describe scientific methods applicable in prognostication |
| to define the starting points of the security situation on a national, European and international scale |
| to define the starting points of the security situation on a national, European and international scale |
| to discuss basic forecasting techniques |
| to discuss basic forecasting techniques |
| characterize analytical procedures in the field of developing security threats and the security environment |
| characterize analytical procedures in the field of developing security threats and the security environment |
| Skills |
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| perform an analysis of the development of the security situation of the given reference object |
| perform an analysis of the development of the security situation of the given reference object |
| apply qualitative forecasting methods |
| apply qualitative forecasting methods |
| apply quantitative forecasting methods |
| apply quantitative forecasting methods |
| perform a safety assessment of the environment |
| perform a safety assessment of the environment |
| create a scenario of the possible development of the security situation |
| create a scenario of the possible development of the security situation |
| teaching methods |
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| Knowledge |
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| Individual work of students |
| Individual work of students |
| Text analysis |
| Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book) |
| Text analysis |
| Methods for working with texts (Textbook, book) |
| assessment methods |
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| Oral examination |
| Oral examination |
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Recommended literature
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Eichler, Jan. Mezinárodní bezpečnost na počátku 21. století. Praha, 2006. ISBN 80-7278-326-2.
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FRIEDMAN, George. The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.. Toronto, 2011. ISBN 978-0767923057.
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Potuček Martin. Manuál prognostických metod. Praha, 2006. ISBN 80-86429-55-5.
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SLOCUN, Nikki. Participatory Methods Toolkit. A Practitioners Manual.. Brusel, 2003. ISBN 90-5130-447-1.
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VALOUCH, Jan. Bezpečnostní futurologie. Zlín, 2016. ISBN 978-80-7454-621-1.
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